From terrorist to peacemaker

On 26 February, jailed leader of the Kurdish insurgency in Turkey, Abdullah Öcalan, called on the PKK (Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan, or Kurdistan Workers' Party) to disarm and dissolve. Öcalan founded the PKK in 1978 to fight for a separate Marxist-Leninist state in Turkey's Kurdish-populated regions. 

In his statement, he declared the PKK had run its course, citing a decline in the "denial of Kurdish identity" and a strengthening of "freedom of expression". The PKK had emerged because "the channels of democratic politics were closed." Now, he declared, Kurds could solve their problems through democracy rather than armed struggle.

Öcalan called on the PKK to convene a congress and dissolve itself. The PKK executive committee, based in Iraq's Qandil Mountains, responded by declaring a ceasefire on 1 March. A date for the congress has not yet been set, but in their declaration, PKK leaders called for Öcalan's release, calling him the only man fit to lead the congress and oversee dissolution.

Bahçeli's invitation

The last ceasefire between Turkey and the PKK was during the 2013-2015 peace process. The clashes that broke out after that added at least 7,000 more deaths to the conflict and triggered a crackdown on Kurdish political life. 

Prominent Kurdish politicians who were part of the peace process are still in jail. Dozens of democratically elected mayors from the pro-Kurdish DEM party have been removed on alleged terror charges. The Turkish army continues its operations against the PKK in Turkey, Iraq and Syria.

In October 2024, in this tense political atmosphere, Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the ultranationalist MHP party, called on Öcalan to dissolve the PKK and end the conflict for good. In return, Öcalan would be invited to speak in Turkey's parliament. 

Öcalan's declaration can be seen as a direct response to that invitation. However, neither Bahçeli nor Öcalan provided details on the fate of the PKK's weapons or fighters. Nor has it been confirmed whether Öcalan, now 75, could realistically be released from prison and welcomed in parliament. 

Vahap Coşkun, an academic at the Dicle University Law Faculty, argues that for peace to be achieved, the state must take certain steps: 

"When the PKK dissolves itself, and the state wants them to be disarmed permanently, its leadership and the fighters must return to a civilian life, with economic and judicial arrangements to support them."

"I believe that, in the background, an agreement has already been reached regarding Kurdish activists and politicians in jail, and the mayors who have been dismissed. That's why the latest crackdown did not stop Öcalan from making this call."

A politically opportune moment for peace?

In recent years, the PKK suffered heavy losses and is struggling to sustain its fight against the Turkish army. Bahçeli, who for years opposed the peace process and called its advocates "terrorists", now wants to be the man who stopped the war.

Bahçeli is not the only person who could benefit politically from peace. Since 2016, Turkey's most powerful politician, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been Bahçeli's ally, and since 2018, the MHP has been a partner in government of Erdoğan's AKP.

For Erdoğan, securing peace could help win support from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party in his bid for a third presidential term. The constitution limits a president to two terms unless parliament calls a snap election before the second term ends. MHP and AKP votes are not enough to trigger an election, but DEM votes could pave the way for another five years of Erdoğan as president.

Peace would also give Erdoğan an international popularity boost. Over the last decade, his anti-democratic policies have drawn strong criticism from Europe, affecting foreign investment. Military operations against Kurds also triggered defence industry sanctions from some EU countries. The impact on Turkey's economy has led to a decline in AKP support. 

Öcalan's call is a pivotal moment for Turkey. It could end a 47-year-old conflict which claimed more than 40,000 lives. Syria, however, is a different story. PKK-linked armed groups in Syria have so far rejected the call. Turkey held two large-scale military operations against Kurds in Syria (2018 and 2019) and, since Assad's fall, threatened a third. 

The history of Öcalan and the PKK

Modern Turkey was founded by military elites in 1923 based on the ideology of a Turkish nationhood and secularism. Kurdish identity was immediately suppressed—Turkish was the only official language and Kurdish was banned. After centuries of autonomy under Ottoman rule, Kurds could not accept this new state formation. Uprisings began in the 1920s and were brutally crushed.

Öcalan founded the PKK as a university student and leftist in 1978. The insurgency began with coordinated attacks in 1984 that killed one soldier and two police officers and wounded eleven. The group was recognised as a terrorist organisation, and heavy clashes began in Kurdish-populated southeast Turkey, intensifying throughout the 1990s. Öcalan led the attacks from Syria, where he had moved in 1979 to oversee training camps. 

As the group gained more influence within the Kurdish community, Öcalan's popularity grew, making him an important figure for millions of Kurds and a powerful representative of the Kurdish struggle.

Under diplomatic pressure from Turkey, Syria expelled Öcalan in 1998. After a few months of seeking refuge in Europe and Russia, Turkish special forces arrested him in Nairobi in February 1999. His trial took a month and he was sentenced to death. 

In 2002 AKP won the Turkish elections, and in 2004, they adopted new reforms in an effort to become an EU member state, including abolition of the death penalty. Öcalan's sentence was commuted to life, which he has since served in solitary confinement on Imralı Island in the Sea of Marmara. PKK leaders in the Qandil Mountains have continued leading the guerilla movement, with Öcalan as their ideological leader. 

Öcalan retained an influential role. His supporters set themselves on fire in front of Turkish embassies in various countries after he was caught in 1999. In 2012, dozens of PKK members in Turkish jails ended a hunger strike at his request.

Turkey knows that Öcalan is the only person who can end the conflict. Turkish intelligence under successive AKP governments has initiated ceasefire talks with him. As a result, in the 2000s, the ban on Kurdish media was lifted and Kurdish people who were forced to evacuate their homes during clashes in the 1990s were allowed to reclaim their lands.

Why did the last peace process fail?

After years of negotiations with Turkish intelligence, in March 2013, Öcalan ordered a ceasefire and called on PKK fighters to withdraw from Turkey to Iraq. He said the next step would be disarmament.

Öcalan's goal for the PKK has evolved from seeking an independent Kurdish state to advocating for a federation with autonomy. From 2013 to 2015, his key demands included recognition of Kurdish rights and greater freedom for mayors in predominantly Kurdish cities.

During the process, Turkey continued building outposts on the mountains overseeing villages and accused the PKK of continuing attacks on its soldiers. Both sides repeatedly threatened to end the ceasefire. The ultranationalist MHP party pressured Erdoğan to end the process.

The PKK, meanwhile, enjoyed an increase in international popularity after its success in the fight against ISIS in Syria. It received significant military and financial support from the US and France, and its commanders were suddenly welcomed by US and European politicians, after decades of being called terrorists.

In the June 2015 elections, the pro-Kurdish DEM party received 13% of the vote, passing the 10% threshold for the first time. MHP also increased its share of the votes, forcing AKP to form a coalition government. Bahçeli, unhappy with the gains of the DEM party, called for a snap election.

In late July 2015, against the backdrop of a shifting geopolitical landscape and an internal political struggle, two Turkish police officers were found dead in their homes. Blaming the Kurds, Erdoğan launched airstrikes on PKK bases in the Qandil Mountains, ending the ceasefire.

The clashes quickly spread to city centers, with hundreds of residential buildings destroyed during bombardments and more than 500 civilians killed. Since 2015, PKK attacks and bombings around Turkey have killed over 150 people, including civilians.

Will there be a lasting peace?

There are still countless Kurdish activists, journalists and politicians in prison. In May last year, 108 people, including former leaders of the pro-Kurdish party, were charged for their alleged roles in protests in support of Syrian Kurdish groups in 2014. Between 2022 and 2024, more than 300 journalists and activists were arrested or put under house arrest. Even the Kurdish politician who read out Öcalan's declaration for the cameras, Ahmet Turk, is one of the elected mayors dismissed after the 2024 local elections. 

In this context, can we expect the new call to lead to a permanent peace?

Vahap Coşkun believes that both sides have already agreed to end the conflict, and the PKK no longer requires conditions to lay down arms:

"In 2013, disarmament and democratisation were being negotiated at the same time, so both sides had to take steps to reach a permanent agreement. Today, Öcalan says the PKK will be dissolved, and then the state will take steps to democratise."

In his message, Öcalan declared that there are democratic ways to solve problems, seemingly abandoning the demands for federalism and cultural autonomy from his 2013 disarmament call.

Coşkun says that Öcalan's recent statement is the clearest he has written: "[Öcalan] usually used wording that can be open to interpretation, giving the PKK leadership room to act differently. This time, the letter is very clear and not open to comment. It shows that both sides, the PKK and the Turkish state, have already reached an agreement."

He adds that the PKK congress will be held soon, as both sides seem determined to resolve the process swiftly. "Öcalan is the founder of the PKK, its sole leader until 1998 and its ideological guide since 1999. Even after he was arrested, his leadership was never questioned. If he says the PKK is ideologically outdated and should be dissolved, there is no question that it will happen."

If this all comes to pass, we might soon see a man once called a "baby killer" and "chief terrorist," free and in parliament, delivering a speech as a peacemaker.