In times of paranoia

The history of Turkey bristles with successful military coups. And the instigators were always generals who presented themselves as guardians of Kemalism and nationalism. Then, political parties were banned and presidents, prime ministers and ministers put on trial. Monstrously repressive measures were then taken against the purported enemies of the state: Kurdish, left wing and Islamist political movements. But there were extensive sections of the state apparatus that even the coup leaders did not mess with: judges, public prosecutors and bureaucrats remained in office and served the military.

The 15 July coup was not successful; it was crushed. The detention and dismissal of officers is to be expected. But why is the order being issued to detain almost 3,000 judges and public prosecutors? Why are 8,000 police officers being suspended from duty? Why 1,500 finance ministry officials? And 257 executive staff at the prime ministerial office?

At the education ministry – and this is not a joke – 15,000 employees have been sacked. This figure does not even include the 21,000 teachers from private schools who have been stripped of their teaching licences. Hundreds of civil servants from the family ministry have also been suspended for suspected involvement in the putsch. Three days after the military coup, the total number of suspensions from public service is 49,000. This requires explanation.

State apparatus at the mercy of Erdogan

The Party for Justice and Development or AKP has governed Turkey for more than 15 years. True to his autocratic style, Recep Tayyip Erdogan hates nothing more than independent institutions.

The entire state apparatus was suffused with apparent henchmen. Erdogan was never squeamish when it came to sacking civil servants. Amendments to the constitution in the year 2010 were for the sole purpose of bringing judges and public prosecutors to heel in the political sense. Those judges and public prosecutors who rose through the ranks to senior positions within the judiciary after the referendum on the constitution enjoyed – with Erdogan covering their backs politically – the freedom to do exactly as they liked. On the other hand, thousands of Kurdish local politicians were locked up for allegedly supporting the PKK. Journalists and critical voices were pursued as alleged members of "terrorist organisations".

Erdogan's political justice landed its biggest coup with the army. Senior figures within the Turkish military, generals and even the chief of staff were accused of carrying out an attempted coup and "membership of a terrorist organisation", sentenced and spent years in jail. The evidence – email correspondence and documents – had been fabricated by both police and public prosecutors.

Many of the successors in the judicial, police and military apparatus were followers of the cleric Fethullah Gulen, who lives in the US state of Pennsylvania, a man who has built up a huge network of loyal supporters over a period of decades. Supported by thousands of private schools – the ideal place for the selection of future cadres – Gulen built up a network of academics who were systematically placed in key public positions.

Gulen's followers focused their attentions in particular on the police intelligence service and public prosecutors. These days, Gulen is an ostracised figure described by Erdogan as a "terror head". Just a few years ago, the cleric was his close ally. Erdogan once said to Gulen: "We're giving you everything you ask us for." It was considered good form that ministers from Erdogan's cabinet made the trip to Pennsylvania to kiss Gulen's hand.Break with Gulen

When Gulen prosecutors in the Ergenekon trials raged against generals with falsified documents, Erdogan declared: "I am the prosecutor in this trial." It is a joke of history that the Kemalist officers targeted in the army purges at the time are the very same people who had warned of the influence of the Gulen movement within the military apparatus. People such as the military prosecutor Ahmet Zeki Ucok, who spent years in jail. He led the investigations against Gulen supporters in the officer corps back in 2009. "My list from 2009 is the same as that of the coup leaders of today," says Ucok. "With a few extra names."

Erdogan's break with Gulen came just a few years ago. Gulen was finally branded a "terrorist" when prosecutors investigated several ministers and the head of the intelligence agency and publicised incriminating material on Erdogan's personal enrichment. This was about nothing less than the question: "Who holds the power within the state?"

The failed military coup has now answered that question. But caution is advised. Contrary to the view of many commentators, who assume that Erdogan can now live out his omnipotence fantasies and that nothing more now stands in the way of his absolute power, it should be noted that the deep split through the state apparatus is not making it easy for Erdogan to govern.

His paranoia is leading to irrational decisions. Most of those now falling victim to the purges within the state apparatus are not necessarily associated with the Gulen movement. An old, critical Facebook entry about Erdogan is enough these days to be declared a supporter of the putsch.

If nations had stock market values, then shares in the Turkish state would be in the bargain bucket. Its military potential has probably been halved. A third of its generals have been detained and the official news agency is disseminating photos and videos – as a deterrent - showing military personnel being mutilated and tortured.

The Turkish state is effectively in a war with the Kurdish guerrilla organisation the PKK, a war that it has not won in three decades, and which it will not win. Today, Turkey shares a border with the Syrian-Kurdish PYG, allied with the PKK and supported by the US. Beyond the border, Islamic State is in control. The Turkish state aimed to topple Syrian ruler Assad ("The day that I will pray in the Mosque in Damascus is close" - Erdogan) and is an enemy of the Shia-dominated government in Iraq.

If Kerry – diplomatically formulated, of course – calls Turkish NATO membership into question and EU politicians, who just a few months ago allowed themselves to be blackmailed over the Syrian refugee issue and instead of demonstrating unconditional solidarity with coup victim Erdogan, issue the Turkish President with a rebuff, then this is due to the bargain bucket level of the Turkish state. The dream of a regional power with a strong army, led by Erdogan, that unites the Islamic-Sunni world and reads the riot act to Russia, Israel and Iran, is over.

Moreover, it is clear from Erdogan's public appearances after the putsch that he is not concerned with inner reconcilement. There is for example no plan to seek reconciliation with the secular middle classes, who perceive their very existence and lifestyle to be under threat. Instead, militant Erdogan supporters are marching through their neighbourhoods to Ottoman martial music, reiterating calls for the reinstatement of the death penalty and bellowing Islamic battle cries.

The largest protest movement against authoritarian rule arose in 2013 from a small-scale, peaceful rally held by mostly young people against the redevelopment of the municipal Gezi Park on Taksim Square, a plan that included the reconstruction of an historic Ottoman military barracks. The demonstrators demanded democracy and codetermination. Security forces supressed the Gezi protest with brutal force. But to prevent any escalation, plans to clear Gezi Park and the build the barracks were initially put on ice.

In his first long speech following the coup attempt, Erdogan eventually decided to deliver it on Taksim Square: "Whether you want it or not, with Allah's help we will build the Taksim barracks. And a mosque." Anyone who is aware of the symbolic power of Taksim Square for secular citizens, will know: This is an invitation to wage a civil war. And Erdogan clearly believes he can win it.

Omer Erzeren

© Qantara.de 2016

Translated from the German by Nina Coon